Options order flow, volatility demand and variance risk premium

Abstract

This study investigates whether volatility demand information in the order flow of Indian Nifty index options impacts the magnitude of variance risk premium change. The study further examines whether the sign of variance risk premium change conveys information about realized volatility innovations. Volatility demand information is computed by the vega-weighted order imbalance. Volatility demand of options is classified into different categories of moneyness. The study presents evidence that volatility demand of options significantly impacts the variance risk premium change. Among the moneyness categories, volatility demand of the most expensive options significantly impacts variance risk premium change. The study also finds that positive (negative) sign of variance risk premium change conveys information about positive (negative) innovation in realized volatility.